Insights

Investment-Einblicke von unseren Experten und Vordenkern

Japan Equity Monthly - March 2021 (Englisch)

We provide our view on the Bank of Japan’s latest policy review, under which the central bank decided to allow long-term rates to fluctuate in a wider band and removed its annual target for ETF purchases. We also assess the barring of foreign spectators from the Olympic games.

Global Investment Committee Outlook: Continue risk-positive (Englisch)

A large majority of our members agreed on a positive scenario in which the global economy mildly outperforms market consensus, while equities continue to rally.

Japan equities poised for further gains along with a turnaround for value (Englisch)

In February 2021, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average reached JPY 30,000 for the first time in over three decades. We believe that equities will keep rising, and that amid this shift in the broader market Japanese value stocks are on the cusp of a long-awaited turnaround.

Asian equity monthly – February 2021 (Englisch)

Asian stocks gained in February as investors upheld optimism about a vaccine-led regional economic recovery. The MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index rose 1.2% in US dollar (USD) terms over the month.

Asian Fixed Income Monthly - February 2021 (Englisch)

The potential return of long-muted inflation sparked a meaningful jump in US Treasury (UST) yields in February. Fears of rising price pressures were prompted by the combination of robust domestic data, positive development on the COVID-19 vaccine front and an anticipated increase in US federal spending. Overall, 2-year and 10-year yields ended the month at 0.13% and 1.41%, respectively, about 1.9 basis points (bps) and 34 bps higher compared to end-January.

Credit spreads explained: The devil is in the details (Englisch)

For corporate bond investors one of the most important points of discussion is spreads. Spreads are the industry term for the risk premium an investor aims to earn in the corporate bond market. It is the difference between the yield a bond is promising and the risk-free rate. If spreads are narrowing it is positive for investors as the price of the corporate bond will increase; likewise, a widening leads to a lower bond price.

Japan Equity Monthly - February 2021 (Englisch)

We assess the factors that enabled the Nikkei to rise above the 30,000 threshold for the first time since 1990; we also view the recent Robinhood frenzy from a Japanese market perspective.

Meditation for investment professionals (Englisch)

The investment industry is constantly searching for ways to improve its decision-making processes. Some firms increase their research teams while others move into quantitative fields such as machine learning. Amid this constant search, we focus on an alternative way to enhance the quality of our decisions; mindfulness can make the difference between a rushed, emotional decision and a thoughtful, rational conclusion.

Ample upside room for slow recovering J-REITs (Englisch)

In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected a wide variety of Japanese assets, including the real estate investment trust (J-REIT) market. J-REITs have bounced back since, but their recovery has been sluggish compared to the Japanese equity market’s rebound. Despite the slower recovery, we believe J-REITs have ample upside room once the rise gathers pace.

2021 Global Credit Outlook (Englisch)

The last 12 months have seen a significant rotation of topics discussed at investment meetings worldwide. The agenda has moved from macroeconomic data to infection rates, hospitalization rates, vaccinations and other issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

2021 Global Equity Outlook (Englisch)

We continue to spend the vast majority of our time on company research and there are doubtless other observers better placed to predict which path that the market will go down, but it seems more likely to us that the future will look much like the pre-COVID-19 recent past. For instance, central banks have become increasingly politicised in recent years. At the same time, many national governments are more indebted than ever, having rushed through huge wage support programmes—designed to postpone a severe economic reckoning as a result of the lockdowns that they imposed.

2021 Japan Equity Outlook (Englisch)

We believe 2021 will be remembered as a year that marked the beginning of the end of the COVID-19 crisis as the world develops vaccines to counter the pandemic. In Japan, we expect a gradual recovery of its economy in 2021, as the pandemic’s impact lessens, and economic activity normalises.

2021 Asian Fixed Income and FX Outlook (Englisch)

We expect North Asia to continue to lead the region’s recovery (at least in the first half of the year). But we also expect the growth divergence between North Asia and the rest of the region to narrow. Unprecedented fiscal support from governments have been pivotal to the ongoing recovery. We expect fiscal action to continue in the coming year but anticipate renewed private sector confidence as the vaccine becomes broadly available and provides a powerful tailwind to regional growth.

2021 Asian Equity Outlook (Englisch)

Asian countries have, by and large, handled the COVID-19 pandemic better than their western counterparts and are now emerging from that nadir. Most of these countries have plenty of fiscal and/or monetary stimulus headroom. And this superior growth and better national finances are available at a significant discount to developed markets. A languid US dollar will enhance local currency returns in these “risk assets”.

Beyond the pandemic: Identifying sources of alpha in Japan (Englisch)

The global markets surged in 2020 despite the COVID-19 pandemic. While we expect the liquidity-driven rise to continue for a while, we should be prepared for the tide to eventually turn. We identify Japanese industries, notably “Delta ESG” stocks, that could become sources of alpha in the post-pandemic world.

Future Quality Insights - Dezember 2020

Ein weiteres Quartal vergeht und wir sind (jedenfalls hier in Großbritannien) immer noch sehr eingeschränkt, was das Reisen und das Zusammenkommen in Büros angeht. In meiner Freizeit suche ich oft vergeblich nach unverbrauchten und interessanten neuen Inhalten, nur um dann auf altbewährte Filme wie die Bourne-Reihe zurückzugreifen.

Japan: Erhebliche Werte warten darauf erschlossen zu werden

Die Corona-Pandemie hat in Japan Veränderungen ausgelöst, die in weniger turbulenten Zeiten viele Jahre gebraucht hätten, um in Gang zu kommen. Wir glauben, dass unter diesen Umständen erhebliche Werte freigesetzt werden können.

An die „neue Normalität“ anpassen: Das Japan-Paradoxon

Der globale Corona-Ausbruch in der ersten Hälfte des Jahres 2020 hat die Welt auf den Kopf gestellt. Angesichts dieser Umstände stehen Japans Unternehmen vor der Herausforderung, sich an die „neue Normalität“ anzupassen.

Trotz erheblicher Verbesserungen in den vergangenen zwei Jahrzehnten werden einige Kritiker den Fortschritt der Wirtschaftsreformen in Japan stets in Zweifel ziehen.

Machen Sie Ihr Portfolio zukunftsfähig mit globalen Internet-Unternehmen

Internet-Unternehmen haben sich im bisherigen Jahresverlauf gut entwickelt und den breiteren Markt dramatisch übertroffen. Wir glauben, dass diese Firmen angesichts der überragenden Rolle, die sie in einer Zeit nach Corona wahrscheinlich spielen werden, Potenzial für weiteres Wachstum haben.

„SugAbe-nomics”

Genug Unterschiede zwischen den Abenomics und der vom wahrscheinlich neuen Premierminister Suga vorgeschlagenen Wirtschaftspolitik scheint es nicht zu geben, um das völlig neue Etikett „Suganomics” zu rechtfertigen, das einige Analysten vorgeschlagen haben.

Der Buffett-Impuls

Es ist ziemlich offensichtlich, dass es sich bei Buffetts Investment nicht nur um ein passives Engagement handelt, da er beabsichtigt, mit diesen Handelsunternehmen zusammenzuarbeiten.

Japans Abe-Situation Teil 2: Persönliche Einschätzung eines Routiniers

Zahlreiche Medienberichte deuten darauf hin, dass Yoshihide Suga das Rennen um das Amt des nächsten japanischen Premierministers anführt. Die wichtigste Frage dabei ist, ob er ohne große eigene Fraktion nur ein Platzhalter für den neuen Regierungschef sein wird.

Japans Abe-Situation

Analysten und Wahrsager mögen mit politischen Spekulationen Aufmerksamkeit erregen. Aber dies ist keine belanglose Angelegenheit. Japan stehen sehr wichtige Zeiten bevor. Das Land sollte nicht wieder auf die schiefe Bahn politischer Wechselspiele geraten.

Future Quality Insights - August 2020

While everyone’s individual experience of this global pandemic has been different, there are many shared experiences that we hope readers will be familiar with. In short, the adaptations we have made as a society have changed the way we live and work. Might these new behaviours give a clue as to what industries and companies will prosper in the years ahead? Well, yes and (likely) no, but at least the task of observing our recent past may help us make sense of the present while giving us a clue about what might be round the corner.

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